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ARCHIVED RECORDBY FLOW INFORMATION SYSTEMSFJP™ RECORD FJP-NRG-20261005

This is the call as published on Mon, Oct 5, 2026. See today's judgment

JUDGMENT OF RECORD ·

Federal must run orders now become a regional ratepayer bill even when plants sit idle. FERC confirmed Centralia coal costs are recoverable despite zero output.

On Oct 2 FERC rejected TransAlta's plan to spread $19.9M of 202(c) costs for its 730MW Centralia coal unit across a footprint including CAISO and SPP. It limited charges to the Northwest. FERC held the costs recoverable although the unit generated nothing through July 2026. A further $23M is expected. TransAlta plans a gas conversion for late 2028.

Utilities are buying firm supply and storage outside markets. On Oct 5 TeraWulf doubled its contracted Kentucky Power load at its Muskie campus to 1GW and pulled phase two forward to 2029. The same day Maryland regulators conditionally picked 440MW of four hour batteries for state capacity credits. On Oct 4 OPEC+ held November targets unchanged.

The layer moving is regulation. Emergency orders turn idle plants into a cost every local customer carries. Profit Migration governs. Confidence is Low: the order rests on one trade report, and rehearing is possible.

CONFIDENCE
Low
HORIZON
12 to 18 months
VS. PRIOR CALL
New call

WHAT WOULD PROVE THIS WRONG

FERC on rehearing denies 202(c) cost recovery for units that produced no power, or DOE lets the Centralia and Eddystone orders lapse without renewal by March 31, 2027.

SHARE THIS CALLLinkedInPost on X

Seven-signal Blueshift Framework

Each signal is Active or Inactive today. Five or more active confirms a structural shift.

1/7NO SHIFT DETECTED

Interface Shift

INACTIVE

Maryland will buy 440MW of storage as a state capacity product, per Oct 5 reporting. Customers draw power the same way.

WHAT WOULD CHANGE ITLarge buyers adopt a new way to procure and use power, such as real time load shifting at scale with disclosed volumes.

Cost Collapse

INACTIVE

Maryland's 440MW of storage is estimated at about 7 cents a month per home, per Oct 5 reporting. That is a cheap award, not a sourced 10x cost fall.

WHAT WOULD CHANGE ITA disclosed storage or firm power cost per MWh falls toward a tenth of 2023 levels within three years.

Developer Gravity

INACTIVE

TeraWulf pulled its Muskie phase two forward a year on Oct 5. One developer moving faster is not measured migration of builders.

WHAT WOULD CHANGE ITMultiple developers file projects on a shared new generation design, with counts rising each quarter.

Distribution Capture

ACTIVE

Held Active. Kentucky Power is building a 765kV substation for one customer, per TeraWulf's Oct 5 release. Access to firm grid capacity stays the chokepoint.

WHAT WOULD CHANGE ITInterconnection waits for new large loads fall below two years in major markets without dedicated substations.

Profit Migration

INACTIVE

FERC kept idle coal paid on Oct 2, moving costs to Northwest ratepayers. Money stays with incumbent plants; no new layer gained margin.

WHAT WOULD CHANGE ITIndependent firm power or storage sellers report contract margins above regulated utility returns in filings.

Incumbent Hesitation

INACTIVE

Utilities acted: Kentucky Power signed 1GW on Oct 5 and Maryland chose storage awards the same day. Leaders are building, not hedging.

WHAT WOULD CHANGE ITMajor utilities withdraw resource plans or delay large load tariffs citing strategy review.

Capital Flood

INACTIVE

TeraWulf's 1GW is contracted load, and the Calvert Cliffs deal on Sept 30 is tied to delivered nuclear output. Capital is tracking contracts.

WHAT WOULD CHANGE ITPower developers raise capital at valuations far above contracted revenue within one quarter.
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Sources

  1. TeraWulf Expands Contracted Power Capacity at its Muskie Data Campus to 1 GWTeraWulf Inc.
  2. FERC rejects TransAlta 202(c) cost-recovery plan for Centralia unitUtility Dive
  3. Maryland conditionally approves 440MW of BESS for state 'Capacity Credit' awardsEnergy-Storage.News
  4. Opec+ keeps oil output targets unchanged for NovemberThe National

This call is produced by the Flow Judgment Engine, recorded as an FJP™ Judgment-Grounded Record and scored against the seven-signal Blueshift Framework. It stays at its permanent address, Energy judgment of Mon, Oct 5, 2026, and is scored held or missed on the Energy track record.

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