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Energy track record

Every call as published, never edited after the fact. Each is scored held or missed once the outcome is known.

HELD0
MISSED0
OPEN18

ALL ENERGY JUDGMENTS, NEWEST FIRST

  1. The quickest new nuclear is inside existing reactors. Google is funding 890MW of uprates at 11 PJM units, years before the first small reactor in Texas.OPEN
  2. Data centers are being made to carry their own grid costs. DOE told FERC large loads must fund PJM's 6.8GW gap, and Duke set a 75% minimum bill.OPEN
  3. The oil shock has moved from the wellhead to the tanker. Freight now adds about $38.50 a barrel to US crude bound for Asia, and governments chose to speed diesel, not add barrels.OPEN
  4. Hyperscalers now pay to add megawatts to the grid, not just claim them. Google's 890MW nuclear uprate deal funds new PJM output it says households won't pay for.OPEN
  5. Large loads in MISO will have to bring their own power plants to win a fast grid connection. Grid access is becoming a cost the big customer carries.OPEN
  6. Federal must run orders now become a regional ratepayer bill even when plants sit idle. FERC confirmed Centralia coal costs are recoverable despite zero output.OPEN
  7. Enhanced geothermal is now a commercial grid supplier, not a pilot. Fervo began selling Cape Station power Sept 30, 23 months after construction began.OPEN
  8. Data centers may soon carry their own grid costs by law. A bipartisan Senate bill makes 20MW loads pay full transmission costs and gives FERC siting power.OPEN
  9. Large US reactors now have a buyer with cash. Korea's $10B advance under a $120B framework makes Westinghouse supply orders the next test, not permits.OPEN
  10. PJM's new firm power will come through private contracts first. FERC froze the 6.8GW backstop auction until February, and Amazon moved the next day.OPEN
  11. Nuclear licensing time is turning into a number planners can bank on. A 14 month NRC review for TVA's first small reactor shortens the path to firm power.OPEN
  12. Washington has spent its oil shock absorber. With the reserve near its legal floor, the next Gulf outage reaches prices with no federal buffer, and refills put a floor under 2027.OPEN
  13. Firm clean power counted on for 2027 is slipping at the reactor and in the queue. Gas plans and kept open coal are filling the gap.OPEN
  14. Gulf supply risk has reached the bypass route. Missiles at Yanbu and a rejected Hormuz plan make US Gulf Coast export capacity the supply buyers can plan on.OPEN
  15. The fastest new grid capacity is now in existing wires. DOE's SPARK awards make reconductoring the first move before new lines.OPEN
  16. Data centers are being made to buy their own grid capacity. Google's Georgia nuclear deal and California's new laws set a price on connecting.OPEN
  17. Oil's peace discount lasted two days. Missiles aimed at Yanbu put the Saudi bypass route at risk, and Brent is back near $108.OPEN
  18. Grid access and who pays for it now govern US power growth, and states are sending the bill to data centers.OPEN