Fintech track record
Every call as published, never edited after the fact. Each is scored held or missed once the outcome is known.
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OPEN18
ALL FINTECH JUDGMENTS, NEWEST FIRST
- Wallets are becoming brokers. GCash is selling its parent's $7B IPO inside the app, and Rain wants a federal charter to issue and hold stablecoins itself.OPEN
- Phone makers can now route cross-border dollars around banks and card networks. Samsung Wallet adds USDC transfers on 82 million US Galaxy devices this month.OPEN
- Banks are keeping the corporate treasury rail by putting deposits on chain. Ant moved live funds on HSBC and OCBC tokenised deposits within 48 hours.OPEN
- Bank supervision is being rebuilt so that growth costs less. The Fed will index its fixed size thresholds, and two bank mergers priced in the same 48 hours.OPEN
- The OCC trust charter is becoming the license that decides who holds stablecoin reserves, and fintechs are filing for it while its legal footing is under attack.OPEN
- Stablecoin rails now carry sanctions risk at the network level. Treasury moved to bar US transfers tied to Russia's A7 network and its ruble token.OPEN
- Banks are fighting crypto rails in court and in code. Community banks sued the OCC over crypto trust charters as The Clearing House set a 2027 token network.OPEN
- Community banks will get stablecoins from their core processor, not from crypto firms. Fiserv put Roughrider Coin live for 90+ North Dakota banks.OPEN
- Small business credit is moving inside payments platforms. Stripe's deal for Parafin puts loans in software merchants already run, aimed at Block and PayPal.OPEN
- Stablecoin reserve income is moving from issuers to distributors. Open USD hands its reserve earnings to Visa, Stripe and partners, aiming at the issuer margin.OPEN
- Banks are buying fintechs for their deposits, not their software. Valley paid about 16 cents per deposit dollar for Bluevine as the Fed moves to bar stablecoin yield.OPEN
- Big banks are now carrying the pipe that moves corporate cash out of deposits. Citi's rails let Coinbase business clients turn wires into USDC automatically.OPEN
- Payment stablecoins are becoming collateral, not only a way to pay. CFTC staff now allow them at futures brokers with a 2% capital charge against 20% for bitcoin.OPEN
- US banks will own a shared on-chain dollar rail by mid 2027. TCH picking Quant ties tokenized deposits to the networks that settle $2 trillion a day.OPEN
- Banks are building their own programmable money faster than stablecoins can take their payments revenue. Regulators are writing the path for bank-issued tokens first.OPEN
- Stablecoins are becoming a funding source for Visa cards, not a way around them. Europe's Wero is the only rail at scale built to skip card networks.OPEN
- Chartered banks have started issuing their own stablecoins, and that cuts the independent issuer out of their card settlement.OPEN
- Stablecoin value in the US is pooling at distribution and chartered infrastructure, not at the issuer.OPEN