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AI Infrastructure track record

Every call as published, never edited after the fact. Each is scored held or missed once the outcome is known.

HELD1
MISSED0
OPEN17
HIT RATE100%

ALL AI INFRASTRUCTURE JUDGMENTS, NEWEST FIRST

  1. The AI chip budget is splitting away from one vendor. Marvell lifted its custom chip target to $12B, and Nvidia backed a fabric built to link rival chips.OPEN
  2. Compute is moving onto credit that public markets cannot see. Broadcom and Oracle sought chip financing off their customers' books as Firmus pulled its IPO.OPEN
  3. Public investors are starting to price neocloud risk that private rounds ignore. Firmus cut its IPO price about 18% on weak demand as Lambda raises $4B privately.HELD
  4. AI campuses are now planned around their own power plant, and the build runs a decade. AWS filed for 36 data centers on a 4.5GW gas plant, phased to 2036.OPEN
  5. AI servers are shipping faster than the US can power them. Foxconn revenue jumped 47% as Goldman cut its 2027 US data center capacity view by 5GW.OPEN
  6. Grid permits, not chips, now set when AI backlog becomes revenue. Oracle and OpenAI's $15B Wisconsin campus likely slips to mid 2028 on power approval.OPEN
  7. Local consent is now a gating input for AI capacity. Amazon dropped data center NDAs and pledged $1B to host towns as over 100 moratoriums advance.OPEN
  8. Cloud lock-in is becoming a regulated cost in Europe. Brussels plans to name AWS and Azure gatekeepers in November, opening their AI demand to rivals.OPEN
  9. Chip vendors are becoming lenders to their biggest buyers. Broadcom's reported $42B convertible for Anthropic ties future chip sales to vendor credit.OPEN
  10. Custom chips are becoming a royalty business. Amazon's $1B+ license with Synopsys moves value toward design IP as hyperscalers cut reliance on merchant GPUs.OPEN
  11. Permits, not chips, now decide where AI capacity lands. Sydney lost a 90MW campus to policy risk the same week Meta signed for GPU space in Indonesia.OPEN
  12. AI cloud backlogs now lean on buyers that cannot yet fund them. A leaked Anthropic prospectus shows $518B of compute obligations against about $20B of cash.OPEN
  13. Permits, not tenant demand, now set AI campus credit risk. Oracle's force majeure on Project Jupiter pushes delay cost onto developers and their lenders.OPEN
  14. Model labs now buy compute with a claim on the supplier. Anthropic's warrant for up to 5% of Akamai makes a CDN carry AI capex before revenue arrives.OPEN
  15. Neocloud capital is pricing backlog that has no power yet. Nscale's $3.36B round funds negative gross margin while Northern Virginia narrows where campuses can go.OPEN
  16. Megacampus delay risk is moving onto developers and lenders. Oracle's force majeure notice on Jupiter shows who pays when the power arrives late.OPEN
  17. New AI capacity money is going where power is easy to get. This week's largest commitments landed in the Gulf and China while Texas froze 49.8 GW.OPEN
  18. Permission to add power, not chip supply, is now the binding limit on US AI capacity growth.OPEN